Norwich (W) vs Stoke (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.8 pp

Norwich (W)

Stoke (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 9.3% DRAW 16.8% AWAY 73.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.6% 8.50 DRAW 18.2% 4.95 AWAY 71.1% 1.27

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Stoke (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.9% win probability, compared with 71.1% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Stoke (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Norwich (W) Stoke (W)

Shots 8.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 20.3 · On target 8.8

Recent attacking output favours Stoke (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Norwich (W) Stoke (W)

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Stoke (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Norwich (W) Stoke (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Stoke (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Norwich (W) ↓ -3.50 (-29.2%)

Stoke (W) ↑ +0.05 (+3.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.