Tesla PA vs Pinheirense EC

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Tesla PA

Pinheirense EC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.2% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 27.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.1% 2.10 DRAW 27.3% 3.32 AWAY 29.6% 3.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tesla PA relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.2% win probability, compared with 43.1% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Pinheirense EC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tesla PA Pinheirense EC

Shots 5.3 · On target 1.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Pinheirense EC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tesla PA Pinheirense EC

Shots allowed 2.8 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Tesla PA has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tesla PA Pinheirense EC

The combined recent performance profile favours Tesla PA.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Tesla PA ↓ -0.79 (-27.3%)

Pinheirense EC ↑ +0.79 (+34.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.