Italy U20 (W) vs Spain U20 (W)

23 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Italy U20 (W)

Spain U20 (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 11.0% DRAW 19.2% AWAY 69.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 12.4% 7.55 DRAW 20.4% 4.60 AWAY 67.2% 1.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Spain U20 (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 69.8% win probability, compared with 67.2% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Spain U20 (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Italy U20 (W) Spain U20 (W)

Shots 16.8 · On target 7.8 Shots 21.5 · On target 11.0

Recent attacking output favours Spain U20 (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Italy U20 (W) Spain U20 (W)

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Spain U20 (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Italy U20 (W) Spain U20 (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Spain U20 (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Italy U20 (W) ↑ +0.66 (+9.6%)

Spain U20 (W) ↓ -0.02 (-1.1%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.