Ferrymead Bays vs Eastern Suburbs Auckland

26 Sep 2026 · 05:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Ferrymead Bays

Eastern Suburbs Auckland

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.4% DRAW 23.6% AWAY 56.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.7% 4.35 DRAW 24.6% 4.00 AWAY 52.7% 1.87

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Eastern Suburbs Auckland relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.1% win probability, compared with 52.7% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Eastern Suburbs Auckland has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ferrymead Bays Eastern Suburbs Auckland

Shots 11.8 · On target 7.8 Shots 21.3 · On target 9.5

Recent attacking output favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ferrymead Bays Eastern Suburbs Auckland

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Eastern Suburbs Auckland has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ferrymead Bays Eastern Suburbs Auckland

The combined recent performance profile favours Eastern Suburbs Auckland.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Ferrymead Bays ↑ +1.85 (+74.0%)

Eastern Suburbs Auckland ↓ -0.48 (-20.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.