Wellington Phoenix Reserves vs Auckland United FC

26 Sep 2026 · 04:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.2 pp

Wellington Phoenix Reserves

Auckland United FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 18.1% DRAW 18.8% AWAY 63.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 21.3% 4.39 DRAW 20.8% 4.50 AWAY 57.9% 1.61

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Auckland United FC clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.1% win probability, compared with 57.9% implied by the market. The 5.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Auckland United FC has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Wellington Phoenix Reserves Auckland United FC

Shots 8.3 · On target 2.5 Shots 13.8 · On target 8.3

Recent attacking output favours Auckland United FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Wellington Phoenix Reserves Auckland United FC

Shots allowed 16.8 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Auckland United FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Wellington Phoenix Reserves Auckland United FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Auckland United FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Wellington Phoenix Reserves ↓ -0.04 (-0.8%)

Auckland United FC ↑ +0.02 (+1.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.