Dungannon Swifts Reserves vs Portadown Reserves

21 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Dungannon Swifts Reserves

Portadown Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.6% DRAW 20.1% AWAY 27.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.0% 1.91 DRAW 21.6% 4.33 AWAY 29.5% 3.17

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Dungannon Swifts Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.6% win probability, compared with 49.0% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Portadown Reserves

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dungannon Swifts Reserves Portadown Reserves

Shots 11.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 12.3 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dungannon Swifts Reserves Portadown Reserves

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.5

Dungannon Swifts Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dungannon Swifts Reserves Portadown Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Dungannon Swifts Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Dungannon Swifts Reserves ↓ -0.26 (-12.0%)

Portadown Reserves ↑ +0.67 (+26.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.