Gainsborough vs Leamington

22 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Gainsborough

Leamington

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.8% DRAW 24.7% AWAY 25.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.2% 2.02 DRAW 25.6% 3.73 AWAY 27.2% 3.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Gainsborough relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.8% win probability, compared with 47.2% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Gainsborough

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Gainsborough Leamington

Shots 7.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 5.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Gainsborough Leamington

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Gainsborough has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Gainsborough Leamington

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Gainsborough ↑ +0.15 (+8.0%)

Leamington ↓ -0.25 (-6.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.