Wingate & Finchley vs Hemel Hempstead

22 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.5 pp

Wingate & Finchley

Hemel Hempstead

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 19.5% DRAW 21.5% AWAY 59.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.0% 5.00 DRAW 22.0% 4.33 AWAY 59.0% 1.61

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Wingate & Finchley

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Wingate & Finchley Hemel Hempstead

Shots 8.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 6.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Wingate & Finchley, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Wingate & Finchley Hemel Hempstead

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.8

Hemel Hempstead has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Wingate & Finchley Hemel Hempstead

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Wingate & Finchley = (0.0%)

Hemel Hempstead ↑ +0.11 (+7.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.