Truro City vs Merthyr Town

22 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

Truro City

Merthyr Town

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.5% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 17.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.2% 1.71 DRAW 24.4% 3.80 AWAY 21.4% 4.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Truro City clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.5% win probability, compared with 54.2% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Truro City has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Truro City Merthyr Town

Shots 17.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 5.8 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Truro City, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Truro City Merthyr Town

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Truro City has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Truro City Merthyr Town

The combined recent performance profile favours Truro City.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Truro City ↓ -0.01 (-0.7%)

Merthyr Town ↑ +0.25 (+6.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.