Dag & Red vs Waltham Abbey

22 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.7 pp

Dag & Red

Waltham Abbey

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.6% DRAW 16.8% AWAY 12.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 65.0% 1.48 DRAW 19.2% 5.00 AWAY 15.8% 6.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Dag & Red clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.6% win probability, compared with 65.0% implied by the market. The 5.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Dag & Red has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dag & Red Waltham Abbey

Shots 11.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output favours Dag & Red, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dag & Red Waltham Abbey

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 7.5

Dag & Red has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dag & Red Waltham Abbey

The combined recent performance profile favours Dag & Red.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Dag & Red ↑ +0.25 (+20.3%)

Waltham Abbey ↓ -2.60 (-29.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.