Independiente FBC vs Carapegua

25 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Independiente FBC

Carapegua

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.5% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 26.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.8% 2.08 DRAW 27.8% 3.50 AWAY 25.4% 3.83

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Carapegua

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente FBC Carapegua

Shots 8.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Carapegua, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente FBC Carapegua

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente FBC Carapegua

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Independiente FBC ↓ -0.02 (-1.0%)

Carapegua ↑ +0.93 (+32.1%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.