Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves vs Olimpia Asuncion Reserves

21 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.9 pp

Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves

Olimpia Asuncion Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 7.4% DRAW 10.2% AWAY 82.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 7.9% 12.00 DRAW 11.6% 8.25 AWAY 80.5% 1.19

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Olimpia Asuncion Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves Olimpia Asuncion Reserves

Shots 7.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 9.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Olimpia Asuncion Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves Olimpia Asuncion Reserves

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.3

Olimpia Asuncion Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves Olimpia Asuncion Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Olimpia Asuncion Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Sportivo San Lorenzo Reserves ↑ +2.00 (+20.0%)

Olimpia Asuncion Reserves ↑ +0.02 (+1.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.