Garforth Town vs Lincoln Utd

22 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Garforth Town

Lincoln Utd

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.8% DRAW 23.5% AWAY 24.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.7% 1.90 DRAW 24.5% 3.77 AWAY 26.7% 3.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Garforth Town relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.8% win probability, compared with 48.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Garforth Town

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Garforth Town Lincoln Utd

Shots 12.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Garforth Town Lincoln Utd

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 8.8

Garforth Town has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Garforth Town Lincoln Utd

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Garforth Town ↓ -0.05 (-2.6%)

Lincoln Utd ↑ +0.46 (+15.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.