Mossley vs 1874 Northwich

22 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.7 pp

Mossley

1874 Northwich

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.2% DRAW 20.7% AWAY 12.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 63.5% 1.50 DRAW 22.3% 4.27 AWAY 14.1% 6.74

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mossley relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.2% win probability, compared with 63.5% implied by the market. The 3.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Mossley has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mossley 1874 Northwich

Shots 9.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 6.3 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Mossley, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mossley 1874 Northwich

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.5

Mossley has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mossley 1874 Northwich

The combined recent performance profile favours Mossley.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Mossley ↓ -0.45 (-23.1%)

1874 Northwich ↑ +3.40 (+101.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.