Chasetown vs Padiham

22 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.6 pp

Chasetown

Padiham

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.2% DRAW 21.1% AWAY 16.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.5% 1.53 DRAW 22.0% 4.21 AWAY 17.4% 5.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.6 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Chasetown

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chasetown Padiham

Shots 9.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 6.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Chasetown, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chasetown Padiham

Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chasetown Padiham

The combined recent performance profile favours Chasetown.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Chasetown ↓ -0.22 (-12.4%)

Padiham ↑ +1.73 (+48.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.