Amanat Baghdad vs Naft Al-Wasat

22 Sep 2026 · 14:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Amanat Baghdad

Naft Al-Wasat

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.7% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 14.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.4% 1.53 DRAW 24.9% 3.78 AWAY 13.7% 6.87

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Amanat Baghdad

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Amanat Baghdad Naft Al-Wasat

Shots 9.0 · On target 1.5 Shots 2.3 · On target 0.3

Recent attacking output favours Amanat Baghdad, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Amanat Baghdad Naft Al-Wasat

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 1.3

Naft Al-Wasat has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Amanat Baghdad Naft Al-Wasat

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Amanat Baghdad = (0.0%)

Naft Al-Wasat ↑ +1.96 (+38.9%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.