Real Espana Reserves vs Lobos UPNFM Reserves

22 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Real Espana Reserves

Lobos UPNFM Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.6% DRAW 24.3% AWAY 37.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.1% 2.30 DRAW 25.0% 3.60 AWAY 36.0% 2.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Lobos UPNFM Reserves

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Espana Reserves Lobos UPNFM Reserves

Shots 12.0 · On target 6.0 Shots 15.5 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours Lobos UPNFM Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Espana Reserves Lobos UPNFM Reserves

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Espana Reserves Lobos UPNFM Reserves

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Real Espana Reserves ↑ +0.05 (+2.2%)

Lobos UPNFM Reserves ↓ -0.05 (-2.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.