Academia Puerto Cabello II vs Atletico El Vigia

25 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.1 pp

Academia Puerto Cabello II

Atletico El Vigia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 30.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.4% 1.95 DRAW 26.4% 3.50 AWAY 26.1% 3.54

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Atletico El Vigia clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 30.2% win probability, compared with 26.1% implied by the market. The 4.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Atletico El Vigia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Academia Puerto Cabello II Atletico El Vigia

Shots 9.5 · On target 3.5 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Academia Puerto Cabello II Atletico El Vigia

Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 7.3 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Atletico El Vigia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Academia Puerto Cabello II Atletico El Vigia

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico El Vigia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Academia Puerto Cabello II ↑ +0.22 (+12.9%)

Atletico El Vigia ↓ -0.36 (-9.2%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.