Uribelarrea FC vs Nautico Hacoaj

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Uribelarrea FC

Nautico Hacoaj

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.8% DRAW 34.0% AWAY 29.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.7% 2.87 DRAW 33.3% 2.90 AWAY 33.0% 2.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Uribelarrea FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.8% win probability, compared with 33.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Uribelarrea FC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Uribelarrea FC Nautico Hacoaj

Shots 11.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 9.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Uribelarrea FC Nautico Hacoaj

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Uribelarrea FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Uribelarrea FC Nautico Hacoaj

The combined recent performance profile favours Uribelarrea FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Uribelarrea FC ↑ +0.50 (+20.8%)

Nautico Hacoaj ↑ +0.18 (+6.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.