Excelsior '31 vs Alkmaarse FC 1934

22 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Excelsior '31

Alkmaarse FC 1934

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 74.4% DRAW 16.7% AWAY 8.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.3% 1.27 DRAW 17.2% 5.50 AWAY 8.6% 11.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Excelsior '31

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Excelsior '31 Alkmaarse FC 1934

Shots 9.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 4.8 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Excelsior '31, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Excelsior '31 Alkmaarse FC 1934

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 1.8

Alkmaarse FC 1934 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Excelsior '31 Alkmaarse FC 1934

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Excelsior '31 ↓ -0.13 (-9.3%)

Alkmaarse FC 1934 ↑ +5.50 (+100.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.