Japan (W) vs Philippines (W)

25 Sep 2026 · 12:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Japan (W)

Philippines (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 97.8% DRAW 1.4% AWAY 0.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 96.2% 1.01 DRAW 2.4% 41.00 AWAY 1.4% 70.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Japan (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Japan (W) Philippines (W)

Shots 21.0 · On target 11.5 Shots 6.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Japan (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Japan (W) Philippines (W)

Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 0.8 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.0

Japan (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Japan (W) Philippines (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Japan (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Japan (W) ↑ +0.01 (+0.9%)

Philippines (W) ↓ -30.00 (-30.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.