Coleraine vs Linfield

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.2 pp

Coleraine

Linfield

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 24.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 46.2% 2.06 DRAW 26.3% 3.61 AWAY 27.5% 3.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Coleraine clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 50.4% win probability, compared with 46.2% implied by the market. The 4.2 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Coleraine has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Coleraine Linfield

Shots 15.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Coleraine, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Coleraine Linfield

Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Coleraine Linfield

The combined recent performance profile favours Coleraine.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Coleraine ↑ +0.14 (+7.0%)

Linfield ↓ -0.17 (-4.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.