Mozambique U20 vs Mauritius U20

22 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Mozambique U20

Mauritius U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 87.1% DRAW 8.4% AWAY 4.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 83.8% 1.14 DRAW 10.4% 9.20 AWAY 5.8% 16.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mozambique U20 relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 87.1% win probability, compared with 83.8% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Mozambique U20 has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mozambique U20 Mauritius U20

Shots 14.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 3.8 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Mozambique U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mozambique U20 Mauritius U20

Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Mozambique U20 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mozambique U20 Mauritius U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Mozambique U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Mozambique U20 = (0.0%)

Mauritius U20 ↑ +5.50 (+50.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.