Penarol vs Boston River

26 Sep 2026 · 23:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.8 pp

Penarol

Boston River

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.6% DRAW 18.3% AWAY 11.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.8% 1.38 DRAW 19.8% 4.74 AWAY 12.4% 7.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Penarol relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.6% win probability, compared with 67.8% implied by the market. The 2.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Penarol has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Penarol Boston River

Shots 12.8 · On target 6.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Penarol, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Penarol Boston River

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Penarol has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Penarol Boston River

The combined recent performance profile favours Penarol.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Penarol = (0.0%)

Boston River ↑ +0.13 (+1.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.