Corinthians (W) vs Sao Paulo (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.0 pp

Corinthians (W)

Sao Paulo (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 50.3% DRAW 28.3% AWAY 21.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.4% 1.90 DRAW 28.2% 3.40 AWAY 21.4% 4.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Corinthians (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Corinthians (W) Sao Paulo (W)

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 14.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Corinthians (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Corinthians (W) Sao Paulo (W)

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 1.8

Sao Paulo (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Corinthians (W) Sao Paulo (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Corinthians (W) ↑ +0.26 (+15.9%)

Sao Paulo (W) ↓ -0.08 (-1.6%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.