Mohun Bagan SG vs Sreenidi Deccan

23 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Mohun Bagan SG

Sreenidi Deccan

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 82.6% DRAW 11.1% AWAY 6.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 79.5% 1.14 DRAW 13.0% 7.00 AWAY 7.6% 12.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Mohun Bagan SG relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 82.6% win probability, compared with 79.5% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Mohun Bagan SG has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Mohun Bagan SG Sreenidi Deccan

Shots 20.8 · On target 7.8 Shots 13.8 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Mohun Bagan SG, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Mohun Bagan SG Sreenidi Deccan

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 1.0 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Mohun Bagan SG has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Mohun Bagan SG Sreenidi Deccan

The combined recent performance profile favours Mohun Bagan SG.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Mohun Bagan SG ↓ -0.02 (-2.1%)

Sreenidi Deccan ↑ +2.00 (+20.0%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.