Chorrillo vs UMECIT Reserves

26 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Chorrillo

UMECIT Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.0% DRAW 22.5% AWAY 19.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.7% 1.65 DRAW 23.6% 3.90 AWAY 20.8% 4.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Chorrillo

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chorrillo UMECIT Reserves

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 11.8 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours UMECIT Reserves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chorrillo UMECIT Reserves

Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 7.0

Chorrillo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chorrillo UMECIT Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Chorrillo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Chorrillo = (0.0%)

UMECIT Reserves = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.