Sportivo Luqueno vs Guarani Asuncion

25 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Sportivo Luqueno

Guarani Asuncion

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 29.3% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 41.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 30.7% 3.10 DRAW 29.2% 3.26 AWAY 40.0% 2.38

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Guarani Asuncion has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sportivo Luqueno Guarani Asuncion

Shots 12.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 13.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sportivo Luqueno Guarani Asuncion

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Guarani Asuncion has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sportivo Luqueno Guarani Asuncion

The combined recent performance profile favours Guarani Asuncion.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sportivo Luqueno ↑ +0.16 (+5.4%)

Guarani Asuncion ↓ -0.04 (-1.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.