Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano

26 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Nacional Asuncion

Sportivo Ameliano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% DRAW 27.9% AWAY 19.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.0% 1.90 DRAW 28.4% 3.34 AWAY 21.6% 4.39

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Nacional Asuncion

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nacional Asuncion Sportivo Ameliano

Shots 13.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 10.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nacional Asuncion Sportivo Ameliano

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Nacional Asuncion has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nacional Asuncion Sportivo Ameliano

The combined recent performance profile favours Nacional Asuncion.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Nacional Asuncion = (0.0%)

Sportivo Ameliano = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.