China U23 vs Thailand U23

26 Sep 2026 · 08:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

China U23

Thailand U23

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.2% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 21.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.7% 1.91 DRAW 26.2% 3.70 AWAY 23.1% 4.19

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Thailand U23

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

China U23 Thailand U23

Shots 7.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 9.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Thailand U23, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

China U23 Thailand U23

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 5.5

China U23 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

China U23 Thailand U23

The combined recent performance profile favours China U23.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

China U23 ↓ -0.14 (-6.9%)

Thailand U23 ↑ +0.99 (+30.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.