Italy U20 (W) vs Colombia U20 (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

Italy U20 (W)

Colombia U20 (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.7% DRAW 23.0% AWAY 16.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.4% 1.69 DRAW 24.8% 3.78 AWAY 19.8% 4.73

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Italy U20 (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.7% win probability, compared with 55.4% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Italy U20 (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Italy U20 (W) Colombia U20 (W)

Shots 10.8 · On target 5.5 Shots 3.5 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Italy U20 (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Italy U20 (W) Colombia U20 (W)

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 17.0 · On target allowed 6.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Italy U20 (W) Colombia U20 (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Italy U20 (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Italy U20 (W) ↓ -0.08 (-4.6%)

Colombia U20 (W) ↑ +1.01 (+27.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.