Waterside Karori (W) vs Fencibles United (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 04:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Waterside Karori (W)

Fencibles United (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.4% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 39.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.4% 3.10 DRAW 25.9% 3.75 AWAY 42.7% 2.28

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Waterside Karori (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.4% win probability, compared with 31.4% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Fencibles United (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Waterside Karori (W) Fencibles United (W)

Shots 3.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 6.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Fencibles United (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Waterside Karori (W) Fencibles United (W)

Shots allowed 0.8 · On target allowed 0.8 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Waterside Karori (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Waterside Karori (W) Fencibles United (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Waterside Karori (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Waterside Karori (W) ↑ +0.60 (+24.0%)

Fencibles United (W) ↓ -0.06 (-2.6%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.