VfB Stuttgart vs Heidenheim

25 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

VfB Stuttgart

Heidenheim

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.3% DRAW 19.1% AWAY 20.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.4% 1.61 DRAW 19.8% 5.00 AWAY 18.9% 5.24

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Heidenheim has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

VfB Stuttgart Heidenheim

Shots 16.8 · On target 5.3 Shots 17.8 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

VfB Stuttgart Heidenheim

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

VfB Stuttgart Heidenheim

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

VfB Stuttgart ↓ -0.01 (-0.6%)

Heidenheim ↑ +1.58 (+43.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.