Penafiel vs Deportivo A Coruna

25 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Penafiel

Deportivo A Coruna

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.5% DRAW 23.8% AWAY 50.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.0% 4.06 DRAW 24.0% 4.06 AWAY 51.9% 1.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Penafiel Deportivo A Coruna

Shots 9.0 · On target 4.8 Shots 11.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Penafiel Deportivo A Coruna

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Penafiel Deportivo A Coruna

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Penafiel ↑ +1.36 (+50.4%)

Deportivo A Coruna ↓ -0.22 (-10.5%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.