Chaves vs Guimaraes

25 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

Chaves

Guimaraes

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.7% DRAW 21.8% AWAY 55.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 21.2% 4.40 DRAW 22.1% 4.20 AWAY 56.7% 1.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Guimaraes

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chaves Guimaraes

Shots 17.0 · On target 7.3 Shots 17.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Chaves, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chaves Guimaraes

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chaves Guimaraes

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Chaves ↑ +1.15 (+35.2%)

Guimaraes ↓ -0.16 (-8.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.