Hartberg vs SV Kapfenberg

24 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Hartberg

SV Kapfenberg

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 69.5% DRAW 18.4% AWAY 12.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.4% 1.43 DRAW 20.0% 4.75 AWAY 13.6% 7.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Hartberg relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 69.5% win probability, compared with 66.4% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Hartberg has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Hartberg SV Kapfenberg

Shots 13.8 · On target 7.5 Shots 12.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Hartberg, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Hartberg SV Kapfenberg

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 7.0

Hartberg has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Hartberg SV Kapfenberg

The combined recent performance profile favours Hartberg.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Hartberg ↑ +0.01 (+0.7%)

SV Kapfenberg ↑ +1.75 (+33.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.