Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) vs Al-Ula FC (W)

25 Sep 2026 · 17:25

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +8.4 pp

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W)

Al-Ula FC (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.2% DRAW 15.6% AWAY 16.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 59.8% 1.62 DRAW 18.4% 5.25 AWAY 21.8% 4.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 68.2% win probability, compared with 59.8% implied by the market. The 8.4 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) Al-Ula FC (W)

Shots 14.3 · On target 8.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Al-Nassr Riyadh (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) Al-Ula FC (W)

Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 0.3 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 7.8

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) Al-Ula FC (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Al-Nassr Riyadh (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Al-Nassr Riyadh (W) ↑ +0.08 (+5.3%)

Al-Ula FC (W) ↑ +0.84 (+23.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.