Lobos UPNFM Reserves vs CD Choloma Reserves

25 Sep 2026 · 22:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Lobos UPNFM Reserves

CD Choloma Reserves

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 78.0% DRAW 12.9% AWAY 9.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.9% 1.25 DRAW 14.7% 6.35 AWAY 10.3% 9.05

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Lobos UPNFM Reserves relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 78.0% win probability, compared with 74.9% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Lobos UPNFM Reserves has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lobos UPNFM Reserves CD Choloma Reserves

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 14.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lobos UPNFM Reserves CD Choloma Reserves

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 5.8

Lobos UPNFM Reserves has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lobos UPNFM Reserves CD Choloma Reserves

The combined recent performance profile favours Lobos UPNFM Reserves.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Lobos UPNFM Reserves = (0.0%)

CD Choloma Reserves ↑ +2.05 (+29.3%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.