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Lebanon League · LB

Al Ahed vs Shabab Al-Sahel

30 Oct 2026 · 12:15
FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE · MATCH OVERVIEW

Match Overview

Model vs Market

The model identifies a clear model-market difference for a home win for Al Ahed. The model is meaningfully more favourable to this outcome than the market.

Recent Performance

Recent match analysis is not yet available for this fixture. Additional context will appear as the underlying match data becomes available.

Pre-Match Betting Perspective

The available Bet365 pre-match reference odds of 1.50 exceed the model's estimated fair odds of approximately 1.45. This suggests a potential pricing advantage for a home win for Al Ahed, although the difference alone is not enough to establish a reliable betting opportunity. The assessment applies only before kick-off.

Historical performance provides context rather than a prediction of the final result.

FOOTBALL MATCH INTELLIGENCE

Model vs Market

MARKET · BET365
HOME MODEL > MARKET
Al Ahed
STOCHASTICBET 69.1%
BET365 59.8% odd 1.50
DIFFERENCE +9.3 pp
DRAW
Draw
STOCHASTICBET 20.5%
BET365 23.9% odd 3.75
DIFFERENCE -3.4 pp
AWAY
Shabab Al-Sahel
STOCHASTICBET 10.4%
BET365 16.3% odd 5.50
DIFFERENCE -5.9 pp
STOCHASTICBET
BET365 MARKET
Market · BET365 Snapshot · 29 Oct 2026 · 14:01
PERFORMANCE · LAST 4 MATCHES

Al Ahed has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output
Al Ahed Shabab Al-Sahel
Shots 12.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 3.3 · On target 1.8

Recent attacking output favours Al Ahed, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance
Al Ahed Shabab Al-Sahel
Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 4.8

Al Ahed has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence
Al Ahed Shabab Al-Sahel

The combined recent performance profile favours Al Ahed.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

Market Momentum

Normalized implied probability movement · percentage points · as of 2026-10-29 21:23:02

6h window

OutcomePinnacleBet365
HOME — +0.00 pp
DRAW — +0.00 pp
AWAY — +0.00 pp

No qualified strong agreement in this window.

24h window

OutcomePinnacleBet365
HOME — —
DRAW — —
AWAY — —

No qualified strong agreement in this window.

Based on available observation endpoints; continuous coverage is not verified. Unavailable values are not zero movements. Market movement is descriptive, not a prediction.

Historical odds not available for this match.