Serbia U21 vs Iraq U23

25 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.1 pp

Serbia U21

Iraq U23

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.4% DRAW 22.7% AWAY 20.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.4% 1.60 DRAW 22.8% 4.10 AWAY 18.8% 4.97

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Iraq U23

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Serbia U21 Iraq U23

Shots 7.8 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Serbia U21 Iraq U23

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Iraq U23 has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Serbia U21 Iraq U23

The combined recent performance profile favours Iraq U23.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Serbia U21 = (0.0%)

Iraq U23 ↑ +0.47 (+10.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.