R Velho Takamatsu vs Lavenirosso NC

27 Sep 2026 · 03:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

R Velho Takamatsu

Lavenirosso NC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.6% DRAW 22.4% AWAY 51.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.4% 4.00 DRAW 22.9% 4.25 AWAY 52.7% 1.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: R Velho Takamatsu

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

R Velho Takamatsu Lavenirosso NC

Shots 10.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours R Velho Takamatsu, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

R Velho Takamatsu Lavenirosso NC

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Lavenirosso NC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

R Velho Takamatsu Lavenirosso NC

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

R Velho Takamatsu ↓ -0.10 (-2.4%)

Lavenirosso NC ↑ +0.30 (+19.4%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.