Arcos vs Atletico Palma del Rio

26 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Arcos

Atletico Palma del Rio

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.3% DRAW 25.3% AWAY 31.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.0% 2.28 DRAW 25.9% 3.60 AWAY 33.1% 2.82

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Arcos has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Arcos Atletico Palma del Rio

Shots 5.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 4.0 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours Arcos, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Arcos Atletico Palma del Rio

Shots allowed 4.5 · On target allowed 1.5 Shots allowed 5.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Arcos Atletico Palma del Rio

The combined recent performance profile favours Arcos.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Arcos ↑ +0.18 (+8.6%)

Atletico Palma del Rio ↑ +0.02 (+0.8%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.