Pozuelo Alarcon (W) vs CD Femarguin (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Pozuelo Alarcon (W)

CD Femarguin (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.1% DRAW 24.4% AWAY 26.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.9% 1.99 DRAW 25.4% 3.60 AWAY 28.7% 3.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Pozuelo Alarcon (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 49.1% win probability, compared with 45.9% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Pozuelo Alarcon (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Pozuelo Alarcon (W) CD Femarguin (W)

Shots 13.3 · On target 5.8 Shots 3.8 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Pozuelo Alarcon (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Pozuelo Alarcon (W) CD Femarguin (W)

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.5

CD Femarguin (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Pozuelo Alarcon (W) CD Femarguin (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Pozuelo Alarcon (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Pozuelo Alarcon (W) ↑ +0.04 (+2.1%)

CD Femarguin (W) ↑ +0.08 (+2.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.