Legiao FC vs Gremio Desportivo Valparaiso

26 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Legiao FC

Gremio Desportivo Valparaiso

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.4% DRAW 27.3% AWAY 25.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.0% 2.06 DRAW 27.5% 3.52 AWAY 25.5% 3.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Legiao FC

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Legiao FC Gremio Desportivo Valparaiso

Shots 6.3 · On target 1.5 Shots 3.0 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours Legiao FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Legiao FC Gremio Desportivo Valparaiso

Shots allowed 4.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 2.5 · On target allowed 1.3

Gremio Desportivo Valparaiso has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Legiao FC Gremio Desportivo Valparaiso

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Legiao FC ↑ +0.46 (+28.8%)

Gremio Desportivo Valparaiso ↓ -0.95 (-20.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.