Luminense (W) vs Maranhao (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Luminense (W)

Maranhao (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 87.6% DRAW 7.7% AWAY 4.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 84.1% 1.10 DRAW 9.7% 9.50 AWAY 6.2% 15.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Luminense (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 87.6% win probability, compared with 84.1% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Luminense (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Luminense (W) Maranhao (W)

Shots 11.3 · On target 6.5 Shots 0.8 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Luminense (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Luminense (W) Maranhao (W)

Shots allowed 0.8 · On target allowed 0.8 Shots allowed 3.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Luminense (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Luminense (W) Maranhao (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Luminense (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Luminense (W) ↓ -0.07 (-5.7%)

Maranhao (W) ↑ +4.00 (+36.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.