Ejidatarios de Bonfil vs Deportiva Venados II

26 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.4 pp

Ejidatarios de Bonfil

Deportiva Venados II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.9% DRAW 28.4% AWAY 37.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.2% 2.47 DRAW 28.5% 3.40 AWAY 32.3% 3.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Deportiva Venados II clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.6% win probability, compared with 32.3% implied by the market. The 5.4 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Deportiva Venados II has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ejidatarios de Bonfil Deportiva Venados II

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 16.8 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Deportiva Venados II, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ejidatarios de Bonfil Deportiva Venados II

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 5.5 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Deportiva Venados II has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ejidatarios de Bonfil Deportiva Venados II

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportiva Venados II.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ejidatarios de Bonfil ↑ +0.02 (+0.8%)

Deportiva Venados II = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.