Atlético Cuernavaca vs FC San José del Arenal

26 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.6 pp

Atlético Cuernavaca

FC San José del Arenal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 68.3% DRAW 16.2% AWAY 15.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 70.6% 1.33 DRAW 16.4% 5.75 AWAY 13.0% 7.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FC San José del Arenal relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 15.5% win probability, compared with 13.0% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FC San José del Arenal has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atlético Cuernavaca FC San José del Arenal

Shots 6.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours FC San José del Arenal, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atlético Cuernavaca FC San José del Arenal

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atlético Cuernavaca FC San José del Arenal

The combined recent performance profile favours FC San José del Arenal.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Atlético Cuernavaca = (0.0%)

FC San José del Arenal ↑ +1.25 (+20.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.