HNK Rijeka vs Union Berlin

26 Sep 2026 · 19:17

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +12.3 pp

HNK Rijeka

Union Berlin

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.2% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 43.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.9% 3.62 DRAW 19.6% 4.59 AWAY 55.5% 1.62

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates HNK Rijeka substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.2% win probability, compared with 24.9% implied by the market. The 12.3 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

HNK Rijeka has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

HNK Rijeka Union Berlin

Shots 20.8 · On target 11.3 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours HNK Rijeka, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

HNK Rijeka Union Berlin

Shots allowed 6.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 9.5

HNK Rijeka has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

HNK Rijeka Union Berlin

The combined recent performance profile favours HNK Rijeka.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

HNK Rijeka = (0.0%)

Union Berlin = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.