Nihon University vs Aries Toshima FC

27 Sep 2026 · 07:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Nihon University

Aries Toshima FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.7% DRAW 27.2% AWAY 36.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.2% 2.88 DRAW 27.4% 3.50 AWAY 39.4% 2.43

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Nihon University relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.7% win probability, compared with 33.2% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Nihon University

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Nihon University Aries Toshima FC

Shots 11.5 · On target 6.3 Shots 7.3 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Nihon University, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Nihon University Aries Toshima FC

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Nihon University Aries Toshima FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Nihon University.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Nihon University = (0.0%)

Aries Toshima FC ↑ +0.29 (+13.6%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.