AFC Toronto (W) vs Ottawa Rapid FC (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

AFC Toronto (W)

Ottawa Rapid FC (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.9% DRAW 21.8% AWAY 22.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.1% 1.78 DRAW 23.2% 4.00 AWAY 24.7% 3.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for AFC Toronto (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.9% win probability, compared with 52.1% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

AFC Toronto (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AFC Toronto (W) Ottawa Rapid FC (W)

Shots 12.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AFC Toronto (W) Ottawa Rapid FC (W)

Shots allowed 5.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.8

AFC Toronto (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AFC Toronto (W) Ottawa Rapid FC (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours AFC Toronto (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

AFC Toronto (W) ↓ -0.32 (-15.2%)

Ottawa Rapid FC (W) ↑ +0.70 (+23.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.